Mining sector expansion and non-oil GDP growth in Saudi Arabia: A growth accounting and econometric analysis under Vision 2030

The paper explores the link between the growth of non-hydrocarbon mining sector and non-oil GDP growth in relation to Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia. It fills a gap in the literature—studies on resource dependence of the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been done mainly on oil dependency and energy intensity, while the contribution of non-oil minerals (NOMs) to non-oil GDP in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in post-2016 period has not been subject to any detailed quantitative analysis at sectoral level. The study employs the growth-accounting decomposition analysis, transparent variable construction, descriptive labor-productivity analysis, and a parsimonious ARDL-ECM dynamic-association check using official national accounts, fiscal, financial, commodity-price and industry data for 2015 to 2025. The econometric component is understood in a cautious sense, as evidence of association, given the brevity of the annual sample and the fact that it is made up of provisional observations for the year 2025. The findings show that the average accounting contribution of non-oil mining to non-oil GDP growth increased from 0.35 percentage points in 2018–2022 to 0.52 percentage points in 2023–2025, a rise of 48.6%. Non-oil minerals accounted for 0.8% of non-oil GDP in 2015 and an estimated 3.0% in 2025, whereas total mining and quarrying increased from 2.1% to an estimated 4.2%. Non-oil mining labor productivity rose from approximately SAR 285,000 per worker in 2015 to SAR 425,000 in 2025. These figures measure labor productivity, not multifactor productivity, because consistent sectoral data on hours worked and capital services were unavailable. The study relates to SDGs 8, 9, 12, and 13 through productive employment, industrial innovation, responsible resource governance, and reduced exposure to hydrocarbon cycles. The results indicate that mining can contribute to diversification when it is connected to downstream processing, transport infrastructure, supplier development, export upgrading, environmental protection, and human-capital development. The policy recommendations emphasize expanded geological data, coordinated mining infrastructure, deeper domestic value chains, mining-specific skills development, transparent licensing and environmental governance, and improved statistical disclosure to support reproducible sectoral analysis.