Abstract
This thesis investigates the integration of energy security considerations into electricity capacity planning in Taiwan, while maintaining economic efficiency and minimizing emissions. Adopting a social-planner perspective, a dynamic capacity-expansion model was developed that incorporates private costs, carbon emissions, and technologyspecific disruption risks, for which energy security is operationalized as the probability of supply disruption. The model identifies optimal capacity investment paths, which are subsequently evaluated through simulation to assess system reliability. Results highlight the trade-offs inherent in this energy trilemma between energy security, economic efficiency and minimizing emissions: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) emerges as the dominant technology, followed by coal, reflecting their relative strengths in affordability and reliability under low carbon prices. While energy security and decarbonization can be mutually reinforcing in principle, the current cost structure limits the realization of this complementarity. The analysis also demonstrates the expected effect of carbon pricing, incentivizing low-emission technologies. Future research could incorporate energy storage, correlated risks, demand growth, and technological learning to further enhance the model and support policy design for a resilient, low-carbon electricity system.
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