Forecasting Nile Delta Shoreline Change Until 2050 Using a Shallow Neural Network

The Nile Delta is among the world’s most vulnerable coasts, facing intensified shoreline retreat from sea level rise, subsidence, sediment decline, and human interventions. While past studies emphasized historical trends, it is the first time we applied a data-driven framework using a shallow artificial neural network to predict the next 30-year shoreline evolution. The model was trained on satellite-derived shoreline data from 1992–2022, incorporating wave energy, sea level, land cover, and subsidence with feature selection and uncertainty analysis to improve model performance. The simulation was validated using 2022 shoreline data. Forecast changes show high agreement with observed patterns. Projections indicate increasing erosion, with cumulative land losses of 5.3, 10.7, and 18.4 km², in 2030, 2040, and 2050 respectively, particularly near Burullus Lake where a major geohazard shift could happen. This AI framework offers a practical tool to support long-term coastal management and targeted adaptation strategies for world deltas.