Abstract
This study analyzes 714 plans across 321 communities to gain an understanding of the extent of managed retreat planning taking place across United States coasts. Adaptation to climate-induced risks encompasses three approaches: resistance, accommodation, and retreat-yet retreat may face barriers to inclusion. Consequently, there is a need to investigate the extent to which communities are considering managed retreat as part of their adaptation strategies. To that end, this study employs a mixed-methods approach, utilizing interviews and plan content analysis. First, we investigate the alignment between planners and plans; results indicate relatively strong alignment, with discrepancies explained by plan latency and density. Subsequently, plans from 321 randomly selected US coastal communities are compiled and analyzed to develop a broad understanding of the extent of managed retreat planning. Statistically significant findings point to the importance of an adaptation-specific plan (odds ratio ¼ 6.98, p value ¼ 0.012), larger community population (odds ratio ¼ 1.57, p value ¼ 0.0135), and other regional and plan-based factors. A closer look at the 8% of communities receiving the highest score of dedicated managed retreat strategy provides recommended techniques including transfer of development rights and overlay districts but also reveals how difficult the task of managed retreat planning may yet prove. As sea levels rise and coastal risks intensify, many experts argue that some degree of managed retreat-the planned movement of people and assets away from high-risk areas-will be unavoidable. Yet new research suggests that most U.S. coastal communities have not incorporated managed retreat into their planning efforts. The results reveal that managed retreat remains largely absent from local planning. Forty-one percent of communities made no mention of managed retreat in their plans, while only eight percent included a dedicated retreat strategy. Communities with adaptation-specific plans were significantly more likely to incorporate managed retreat, and larger communities showed greater odds of advancing beyond simple mentions to more comprehensive planning. The analysis also found regional differences, with West Coast communities more likely than Atlantic Coast communities to include dedicated retreat strategies. Researchers analyzed 714 planning documents from 321 coastal communities across the United States, examining the extent to which managed retreat appears in comprehensive plans, hazard mitigation plans, and adaptation plans. The study also compared plan content with interviews from local planners and resilience professionals to assess whether planning documents reflect community perceptions and priorities. A closer examination of the highest-scoring plans revealed practical approaches to managed retreat, including development-rights transfers, voluntary buyouts, infrastructure relocation, and habitat restoration. Yet dedicated retreat strategies remained rare, highlighting how difficult transformative adaptation remains in practice. The findings offer a roadmap for coastal communities seeking to integrate managed retreat into long-term climate adaptation and resilience planning.
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