Quantum computing in materials engineering: The economic impact

Quantum computing (QC) is based on quantum mechanical phenomena such as superposition and entanglement. QC allows the development of a new computational paradigm with the potential to provide massive advances in computational power to achieve many complex computational tasks across a wide range of industries. Materials engineering is among the first use cases of QC where a commercial advantage over classical computing could be achieved. In addition to simulating physical material properties, combinatorial optimization problems have shown promise, for example, in metamaterial design. Nevertheless, QC is still an emerging technology with a high degree of uncertainty. While technical possibilities and challenges of QC have been widely researched, the market potential of QC remains unclear. This thesis aims to determine the potential economic and sustainability value of applying QC in industries related to materials engineering and timelines for achieving this value. In addition, this thesis aims to evaluate the challenges in the industrial adoption of QC. In the longer-term perspective, the focus in this thesis is particularly on the viewpoint of Finland. This work is conducted as a literature review. The central result of this thesis is that QC is expected to provide value in materials engineering already in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era. This value can be achieved through simulation, optimization, or machine learning (ML) methods. Industries relevant to materials engineering and likely to be early adopters of QC include chemistry, healthcare, automotive, and logistics. The market size for QC may reach several billions of United States dollars by 2030. By 2030, some estimates suggest that the annual value of QC for end users could reach up to USD 10 billion, although these projections are based on optimistic assumptions about the development of quantum computers. Regardless, a significant portion of the value for end users is expected to benefit industries related to materials engineering. In addition, potential sustainability impacts of QC in materials engineering include more efficient battery design, lower emission materials, and supply chains optimized for resource efficiency. These outcomes could be significant for the economy of Finland from both the provider and adopter perspectives within this decade. Therefore, further investments in Finland are recommended for collaboration between academia and industry to research and develop QC applications in materials engineering. However, developing QC hardware and software stacks also remains critical.