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What is the point of making concessions? What is the point of signing a deal with this president when every experience tells us nothing of it will be binding, he will not live up to the terms on his side, uh, he will not make any serious concessions to begin with, uh, but he will graciously accept our concessions and then turn around and, and hit us again anyway?
Welcome to the regular Friday monk dialogue this summer featuring Globe and Mail journalist Andrew Coyne. Andrew, great to be in conversation with you.
To be with you.
Gotta talk trade off the top of today's show, Andrew. We're hurtling towards this August 19 deadline. The prime minister is flagging that he wants a more comprehensive deal with the Trump administration, yet all the signs out of the United States seems to be, uh, a desire to delay, to push any kind of comprehensive deal, if one is possible, out until 2027. What's your take of the mix as we, uh, hurdle through the dog days of summer to this consequential date?
Well, it's odd how the positions have, uh, turned around. It used to be the Americans were expressing frustration 'cause we were dragging our heels, uh, and we were trying to play for time, uh, you know, just to watch Trump grow weaker, to wait until after the midterms or what have you. Um, why this sudden turnaround where now we wanna get a deal by August the 19th? I mean, I understand the exact point about the tariffs, um, but it, the, the, the overarching question, you know, surrounding all of these talks is, what is the point of a deal with Donald Trump? This is a lesson that every country has been learning, uh, to its cost. One of the things that had distinguished the Canadian approach until now is that we didn't rush into a deal. We've watched other countries that did, uh, and got nothing for it. They, they signed a deal on ex- extortionary terms, and then even those extortionary terms were ignored. Uh, so the Europeans, for example, you know, made all kinds of concessions in return for a tariff of merely 25%, [laughs] uh, only to see Trump impose new tariffs on them after that, after the deal had been struck. So I, I know it's an obvious point, but it's nevertheless a compelling and, and, and point that has not gone away is, what is the point of making concessions? What is the point of signing a deal with this president when every experience tells us nothing of it will be binding, he will not live up to the terms on his side, uh, he will not make any serious concessions to begin with, uh, but he will graciously accept our concessions and then turn around and, and hit us again anyway? Um, so on top of which, we're now seeing reports that the Canadian government, which had previously been vowing elbows up, no concessions, et cetera, is prepared to make quite a string of concessions. Now, it... I have to be careful here. Some of these concessions are things I would be glad to see us get rid of. If they make any concession, for
Episode notes
What is the point of negotiating with Donald Trump when experience suggests that agreements may not be binding, concessions may not be reciprocal, and terms may not be honoured? Reports now suggest the Canadian government is preparing to make significant concessions, including allowing more American dairy into the Canadian market. But in this climate, and with this president, any Canadian concession should come with a concession of equal value from Washington. So what exactly is Ottawa’s strategy? Are its conflicting signals a deliberate effort at strategic ambiguity—or evidence that the government itself is divided? And how might Trump’s negotiating posture change if Republicans lose the U.S. midterms in November and he becomes a lame-duck president?
In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Andrew turn to the emerging Oman-Iran agreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz, asking whether it signals a retreat from freedom of navigation and another step in the decline of American power abroad. They argue that Trump fundamentally misunderstood the Iranian regime he was confronting and the retaliatory tools at its disposal. The result, they contend, is more than a strategic defeat: it is a humiliation for the United States.
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