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You know, Iran is the one that is likely to overestimate, and increasingly so as the midterms get closer, because Donald Trump needs that-
Yeah
... straight open. But what about on November 5th and 6th?
Yeah.
It happens, right?
And what, and what, what-
It shifts
... what will Iran wanna try to leverage before November in order-
Of course
... to be in a better position after November when they realize their leverage goes away? It's-
100%. [laughs] That's it.
It'll be interesting, to say the least.
That's the 3D chessboard here.
Yeah. [upbeat music] Welcome to the Friday Focus podcast for the 19th of June, 2026. I'm Roger Griffiths, chair of the Munk Debate, joined by Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs. Uh, happy Juneteenth, Janice. The US, uh, much of it observing, uh, this holiday, but we're here in the studio ready to talk about another wild week in global events, from the G7 to the beginnings of the ceasefire. Let's dig right into the news this morning, which is overnight continuing heavy strikes by Israel on southern Lebanon. This is in response to cross-border attacks by Hezbollah. Supposedly, the parties have agreed to yet another ceasefire, uh, to come into effect in a matter of hours. What's going on here, and to what degree is this, uh, imperiling this very fragile MOU, it seems, between Iran and the United States?
Roger, neither of those two parties, neither Hezbollah nor Israel, are parties to that agreement. Iran claims that the ceasefire applies to Lebanon, uh, and the Trump administration has spoken, um, in w- with conflicting language. At one, it, it certainly said to Prime Minister Netanyahu, um, "You need to stop the strikes, uh, in Lebanon," the president said in very colorful language, uh, three days ago. But he then said, and his team said, "Well, yeah, but you have a right to self-defense."
Mm-hmm.
So in your introduction, the s- the scenario here is Hezbollah starts by firing missiles, and you get these response, uh, these strikes in response, and then Israel claims it has the right to self-defense. Uh, this is the weak point of the ceasefire. All ceasefires are problematic, especially in the first 72 hours, but this is clearly the most vulnerable part of the
Episode notes
Janice and Rudyard unpack another wild week in global affairs, beginning with news of heavy Israeli strikes overnight on Hezbollah in Lebanon in response to attacks on Israeli troops. Although both sides have agreed to another ceasefire, these skirmishes could jeopardize the fragile memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S., potentially giving Tehran leverage over Israel by threatening to walk away from the deal.
How does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu respond to this latest escalation when Israel's deterrence credibility may be constrained by the agreement with Iran? And what if the MOU is merely a tactical ploy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lower oil prices, and buy time without resolving any of the underlying issues—setting the stage for renewed conflict after the U.S. midterm elections?
In the second half of the show, Janice and Rudyard turn to this week's G7 meeting in France and ask whether there is any evidence that meaningful pressure is finally being brought to bear on Russia. President Zelensky has helped Ukraine build one of the world's most formidable drone capabilities, and the country's growing confidence was on display as dramatic images emerged from a brazen overnight drone strike on Moscow.
If the tide is indeed turning, Putin—already under significant political pressure—may have few conventional options left. What are the risks that, as he