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222 turns · 37 minIt's hard to see how the Trump administration claims-
Yeah
... any victory when there will be funds transferred to Iran in exchange for what? For unblocking the Strait. [upbeat music]
Welcome to the Friday Focus Podcast for the 12th of June, 2026. I'm Roger Griffiths, chair of the Munk Debates, joined by my co-host, Janice Gross Stein, the Munk School of Global Affairs. Hey, Janice.
Hey, Roger. H- how are you this week?
Oh, yeah. Well, forget about me. Uh, the President of the United States in the last 24 hours, for I believe the 38th time in the last 100 days-
Yeah
... has announced that the, uh, war with Iran is imminently over. It's not over, it's close, it's matter of days. Maybe there's a signing ceremony in Geneva, we don't know.
Yeah.
So Janice, let's, uh, dedicate this show to this, 'cause it seems like a bit of a milestone in this saga.
Hope so.
Um, before we get to some of the leaked elements of, uh, the supposed deal that's firming up, what did you make of the, the week that was? It did seem to follow a very predictable pattern, uh, at least from the President in terms of, you know, some, some heavy rhetoric, some big threats, and then, uh, of course, just before the market closed yesterday, the 38th time, uh, he is announcing now, uh, a great deal, uh, with the government of Iran, whoever that is. Uh, and I guess we'll just have to see. Are we lucky? 38 times.
I- you know, off the top, Roger, it looks like this line is real because there are leaks coming from the Iranian side, not only from the US side. But if you look at the choreography of this leak, to answer your question, you get, um, escalation first of all, and look where the United States bombed. It bombed just along the periphery of Iran's coastline, um, along the strait. So the United States is going after, um, missiles that are embedded, uh, in some of the caves along the straits, and that's an effort to limit their capacity. The worrying thing here, Roger, is I can just imagine the rhetoric and the conclusions that will follow from this. There's a well-known strategy, uh, broadly by people who write about these problems, called escalate to deescalate. It's a classic Russian strategy actually, but when you face an impasse at the negotiating table, you up the ladder, you increase the costs, and then the other party comes to the table. I'll bet you anything that the Trump administration claims that that's what they did, um, to get over the line, um, a memorandum that has been negotiated for the last several weeks, frankly. And if that's the conclusion they walk away from, um, this is not gonna be much of a learning opportunity.
Mm-hmm. Let's, uh, go through some of the, uh, again, uh, these are leaked elements of this-
Right
... 14-point proposal, 'cause I'm struggling a little bit, Janice, to see where the President is gonna be able to claim any kind of victory if these points are indeed what are featured in the, I guess, an agreement, Janice, maybe we should start there, that's not really a solution or a resolution to the war.
No.
It's basically, I guess if you wanna be realistic, Janice, it's, it's a kind of an extension of the ceasefire on more favorable terms-
Right
... to negotiate
Episode notes
This is now the 38th time President Trump has proclaimed a “great deal” with Iran. Is this one finally real? And if so, does it vindicate his strategy of escalating tensions to force Tehran back to the negotiating table?
Based on the details leaked so far, the proposed agreement amounts to a 60-day ceasefire designed to create space for further negotiations. Yet the benefits for Iran appear to come first: sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before any final agreement on uranium enrichment or the nuclear program is reached. If that proves accurate, it is difficult to see where the Trump administration can claim victory. The deal risks looking less like a breakthrough and more like an agreement to reward Iran in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Has Trump abandoned his own red lines? And if the end result resembles the framework negotiated under Obama, what exactly has changed? Finally, where does Israel fit into this agreement—and what could derail it before the ink is even dry?
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