From Barrels to Ballots: Middle East and Midterm Elections

Welcome to All Into Account. I'm Amy Ho from JPMorgan's strategic research team. What began as a conflict that President Trump suggested could be wrapped up in four to five weeks has now stretched beyond the 100-day mark and evolved into something much broader. And I think it's fair to say much more complicated. While markets have largely settled after the initial whiplash stemming from the conflict, investors are still grappling with some fundamental questions. Where does the conflict go from here? What does it mean for regional stability and energy markets? And how, if at all, could it shape the political landscape as we head toward the U.S. midterm elections? To help us unpack those questions, I'm joined by two great guests. Mike Singh is Managing Director and a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute, where he focuses on U.S. policy and the Middle East. And Dan Silverberg is a partner at Capstone, bringing deep experience at the intersection of national security and Washington policymaking Mike and Dan, thanks for joining me.

Thank you. Good to be here.

Well, I have to say, I must start this by saying today is June 9th, because by the time that this podcast launches, many things could have changed. So Mike, let's just start with you. And can you help me level set what's happening here? We're now more than 100 days, as I mentioned, into a conflict that many expected to be much shorter. How did we get here? Where do things stand today? And what should our investors and those that are listening be paying the most attention to over the next few months?

Well, I think that if we want to really understand how we got here, the question is, how far back do you want to go? I think you have to start at least with October 7th, 2023 and the Hamas attacks on Israel, because that set off a chain of events where which really tipped the region into conflict, conflict on multiple fronts, conflict in Gaza, conflict between Israel and Lebanon, conflict that brought in Yemen and the Houthi rebels who govern Yemen, and of course direct conflict between Israel and Iran for the first time really since the establishment of the so-called Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. That, in a sense, culminated last year in June 2025 with the so-called 12-day war that Israel and the United States fought against Iran. The United States joined in just for one day, just the last day of that conflict, and then President Trump declared a ceasefire. But in that one day, the U.S. caused extensive damage to Iran's nuclear program, really eliminated Iran. Many of Iran's most problematic nuclear capabilities. And after that, there was this sense that, you know, the US essentially was moving on. President Trump said, look, I obliterated the nuclear program. And then he moved on to Venezuela, moved on to other policy issues, Greenland and so forth. Then in January of this year, January 2026, there were protests in Iran that brought thousands, tens of thousands of people into the streets. And what we saw from President Trump was a reaction saying, I'm going to come to the rescue of these people. I'm going to come help these Iranian protesters and warning the Iranian regime against