All into Account: Strait Risk to Market Risk: V-Shaped Rebound, Narrow Runway

good morning good day good afternoon and good evening everyone welcome to jp morgan's all into account i'm joyce chang chair of global research at jp morgan today's podcast focuses on the mid-year outlook so in addition to our global research mid-year outlook the update that we have on strategic themes through the second half of the year i am just delighted to feature an update on the forecast from the international monetary fund and the world bank Now, I think all of you know, JP Morgan's investor seminars at the IMF World Bank spring and fall meetings hosted each April and October are our annual convenings that feature the IMF and World Bank's latest research views. But they also put out updates at the mid-year and earlier and at the beginning of the year. And we were just so fortunate to have the chance to feature a webinar earlier this year. And we have the opportunity now to have Petya Koviak-Books, the deputy director of the IMF's research department, And Ayan Kost, the Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and the Director of the Prospects Group with us today to walk us through how they are looking at the world as we approach the second half of the year. So we want to highlight just the breadth and the depth of research that are produced by both institutions beyond the annual meetings. So let me now just turn to what lies ahead for the global economy and markets for the remainder of the year. After such a strong first half of the year, we're seeing more turbulence in the markets, heightened daily volatility, more focus on financial stability risk. And this brings us to a number of the common themes in the mid-year outlooks from the IMF and World Bank. So both the IMF and World Bank frame two large forces that are moving in opposite directions. There's the adverse shock that we've seen from the Iran conflict on energy and commodity prices, But there's also the power of the AI CapEx investment as an offsetting force, but also a risk to financial stability. So I want to start with the growth and the inflation outlook right now. Both the IMF and the World Bank highlight that there are ongoing downside risks to the economic outlook, even as we have seen that the energy shock was weathered far better than many had feared a few months ago. So I want to just start by asking both of you to talk about how you're looking at the near term outlook for growth, but just as importantly, the potential growth outlook. And also to talk about inflation, because both of you highlight that global disinflation has stalled. Is this a temporary energy driven bump or something that's more persistent? And how should we think about the second order effects of all of this? Let me turn first, Petya, to you to walk through the IMF's forecast and then have Ihan walk through how the World Bank is looking at this.

Thank you very much, Joyce. It's a pleasure to be here and part of this conversation. So indeed, we have just released our July update, which is an interim forecast. So we don't have the full set of countries. And we also really focus mostly on this year and next. And then, of course, in October, we're going to go back to the bigger universe and also