The past, present, and future of the bubonic plague - Sharon N. DeWitte

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Imagine if half the people in your neighborhood, your city, or even your whole country were wiped out. It might sound like something out of an apocalyptic horror film, but it actually happened in the 14th century during a disease outbreak known as the Black Death. Spreading from China through Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, the devastating epidemic destroyed as much as one-fifth of the world's population, killing nearly 50% of Europeans in just four years. One of the most fascinating and puzzling things about the Black Death is that the illness itself was not a new phenomenon, but one that has affected humans for centuries. DNA analysis of bone and tooth samples from this period as well as an earlier epidemic known as the Plague of Justinian in 541 CE has revealed that both were caused by Yersinia pestis, the same bacterium that causes bubonic plague today. What this means is that the same disease caused by the same pathogen can behave and spread very differently throughout history. Even before the use of antibiotics, the deadliest outbreaks in modern times, such as the ones that occurred in early 20th century India, killed no more than 3% of the population. Modern instances of plague also tend to remain localized or travel slowly, as they are spread by rodent fleas. But the medieval Black Death, which spread like wildfire, was most likely communicated directly from one person to another. And because genetic comparisons of ancient and modern strains of Yersinia pestis have not revealed any significantly functional genetic differences, the key to why the earlier outbreak was so much deadlier must lie not in the parasite, but the host. For about 300 years during the High Middle Ages, a warmer climate and agricultural improvements had led to explosive population growth throughout Europe. But with so many new mouths to feed, the end of this warm period spelled disaster. High fertility rates combined with reduced harvests meant the land could no longer support its population, while the abundant supply of labor kept wages low. As a result, most Europeans in the early 14th century